Sony/Ninty : nothing to counter MS in end 2010 ?

[marc]

This year seems pretty straight forward.

Nintendo will stay on top by sheer overwhelming console sales which result in sales of their core games.

Microsoft is not even trying... In 2009 they could have easily cut prices another 50% and they still would have broken even on hardware. They elected to make money instead and as a result Sony gained market share. The funny part is, even without any real attempt to compete, MS has won the fight in the US. Now they have a lot of options.

- Drop prices and completely blow away Sony in the US and gain market share in EU. You make less money from hardware but increase software income.
- Leave prices alone and keep making games... This would not be my choice but for executives trying to bolster the bottom line this might look safer.
- Buy out some developers. I would have taken TTwo or THQ when they were cheaper. They are still priced reasonably. They can easily take TTwo (especially now with Icahn holding a big stake) for around $1b. They can also take THQ for less than $500m. I wouldnt bother with EA or Activision because I think they are significantly over priced and they would need to take out financing to buy them whereas they get both TTwo and THQ with cash already on hand.

Sony... is essentially screwed from a business perspective. All they can do right now is make games and pray that those will turn the tide for their business. If MS gets aggressive its all over for them this generation.

The wildcards this year and next are Natal. If they can perfect the technology and make a few really great games it will change the market dynamics possibly.