jarrod said:
Carl2291 said:
jarrod said:
| Carl2291 said:
I don't really think WSR and WF+ are pushing the HW that much, i think the only siginificant boost is coming from NSMB. With the PS3's pretty big lineup in Q1/Q2, will NSMB be enough to get people choosing Wii over PS3? Sure, it has SMG2 in the early months... But as i said in the other thread, will it move significant hardware?
Someone, please... Wii lineup. It would make this conversation a lot easier 
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I think Galaxy 2 will drive about as much hardware as Yazkua 4 or Versus.
The real problem here is Nintendo's new ideology of holding back announcements until just before release (which is very much in contrast to Sony's or Microsoft's methodology). We probably won't know the full Q1 lineup until Jan's retailer conference for example, and we currently have no clue for the rest of the year (maybe Galaxy 2 for Golden Week, Zelda for the holiday... and uh, not much else?). Wii's fortunes could shift pretty fast if we're suddenly looking at MH3G, DQVII and Inazuma Break all within the year (all potential million sellers), which is honestly pretty likely considering everything we know now (DQ franchise migration/history, MH3 western release in Q2 & rumors, Inazuma rumors). Then you also have Nintendo's lineup, though I'll admit 2010 isn't near as strong there as 2009, though this is somewhat mitigated by 2009's 2nd half evergreens versus the tepidness of 2008's 2nd half failed evergreens.
Like I said before though, barring a surprise DQX holiday launch, NSMBWii will probably be 2010's best seller on consoles and drive significant hardware. Hell, it even has a shot at outselling Yakuza 4, GT5 and Versus combined.
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Probably. But what i'm trying to get at... Is it's just one game.
Lets hope they announce some big stuff this month then. Any ideas when the conference is? At least after that we can judge what's going to happen a lot more clearly.
I don't think there is any doubt about NSMB being the best selling next year.
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Conference is usually middle of the month iirc. They're monthly btw, but don't usually get publicized unless something major is announced.
I think we have a pretty idea of Q1 though, I don't really anticipate much changing (though March should fill out some more). I think Nintendo's going with the same plan they had last year, Q4 releases pushing Q1. Didn't work last year was the problem.
Q2 is still a big mystery though, for both Wii and PS3 really. I'm not sure what "big" stuff we'll see, Wii side I think Galaxy 2 and MH3G, not sure about PS3?
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jarrod had a good point that Nintendo's plan to use Q4 releases to push Q1 and it didn't work last year since neither Wii Music nor Animal Crossing become the evergreen title Nintendo hoped. However, this year Nintendo has probably their biggest evergreen title in NSMBW (bigger than Wii Sports and Wii Fit) and one such game would be enough for Q1, or even Q2. Along with WSR and WF+, Nintendo should have a stronger Q1 in Japan this year even without any big game releases comparing to PS3.
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