Carl, I think Wii and PS3 will be fairly close next year, but I expect Wii to come out on top again. You're forgetting NSMB Wii has only just launched-and it's massive. It could sustain Wii sales for months to come, alongside Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus, which have both shifted considerable numbers over the holiday period in Japan. As others have pointed out, Wii had a very poor first 6 months this year in Japan. Wii Sports Resort didn't give an immediate hardware boost, and Monster Hunter 3 didn't give a long term boost.
NSMB Wii is going to sustain momentum for a few months at least, I think. As for the 2010 lineups of PS3 and Wii in Japan, I don't know which is better. I don't care much for list wars :P But I do think going into 2010, Wii has the momentum. How long that will last is another matter.
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