Yes of course.
By Nintendo's most recent figures (mid-2009) about 20% of Wii owners didn't own a 6th gen console (some of those may have skipped 6th gen or been handheld/PC gamers beforehand, so not all are new gamers, but that is not important for the OPs question)
80% of 60 million is 48 million, MOST of those have to be PS2 owners simply because there were not enough GC and XB owners to spread around. (not all of them will have bought a 7th gen console yet)
I am very doubtful many XB owners will have moved over to the Wii, but a lot of GC owners will have. As a guesstimate I would say of that 48 million:
- 5 million were multi-console owners last gen (most multi console owners last gen will have had a PS2)
- 1 million were XBox exclusive owners (could easily be less than that, I don't think the audiences mix well)
- 12 million were GC exclusive owners (many of the multi owners will have had GCs too)
- That leaves 30 million that were PS2 exclusive owners.
I would say most XB owners (that have moved) moved to X360, If we say ~18-19 million XB owners have already moved to 7th gen Probably 13 million of those moved to X360, less than 1mil to Wii and the rest to PS3.
So X360 owners (35 million of them... I am not including the last few weeks as it made it easier to work out Wii percentages) are made up of:
- Some new gamers (say 2 million)
- Some multi 6th gen owners (5 million... most will have been PS2/XB owners)
- 9 million XB exclusive owners (13 million - 4 million that also had a PS2)
- 2 million exclusive GC owners
- therefore 17 million PS2 exclusive owners.
PS3 owners will be made up of mostly PS2 owners (but then the Wii and X360 are also mostly PS2 owners.. just not as "mostly" as the PS3)
Lets say, out of the 29 million PS3s:
- 3 million new owners (more attractive to previous non gamers than the X360, mostly due to Blu-Ray)
- Multi 6th gen console owners (errr...3 million?)
- 4 million XB exclusive owners
- 2 million GC exclusive
- That leaves 17 million PS2 excl. owners
========
So:
Wii - 30 + 4 million of the multi owners = 34 million PS2 owners have a Wii.
360 - 17 + 4 million of the multi owners = 21 million PS2 owners have an X360
PS3 - 17 + 3 million of the multi owners = 20 million PS2 owners have a PS3
All this is of course just an estimate, the only facts in there are those from Nintendo about new gamers, the rest is number crunching based on how many of last gens owners I think will have moved on (which is less in %age for PS2 as it is still popular and selling) and my assumption that XBox owners and GC owners don't mix much (and thus not many XB owners moved to Wii except those few who buy multiple consoles)
Even so, yes I believe more PS2 owners have moved to X360/PS3 than to Wii, but it is not by the margin some of you might think (41:34 being my results... some of those will be crossovers though by owning more than 1 console from this gen)
Essay Pro