Both Wii and PS3 will not sell below 200k consoles in weekly sales in 2010.

[binary solo]

I think KZ3 will do what Uncharted 2 did. If KZ3 actually comes into being and is a significant improvement on KZ2 (from a graphics perspective a significant improvement would be pretty amazing to see, but if it is a gameplay and SP mode improvement then that would be pretty good too). KZ2 undersold compared to its quality and didn't shift many PS3s. But it did give the KZ name some kudos. KZ3 can cash in on that kudos and perhaps do better at moving hardware than KZ2 did.

But in terms of the prediction about not falling below 200K during 2010 it's not about the release weeks for big games, because any HW boosting effect is short lived being 3 weeks at best, more like 2 weeks and often only 1 week. So talking of games it's all about the general apeal of the game library and whether the overall list of games maintains a baseline of sales above a certain level. If the prediction is that X console won't fall below Y weekly sales number then the week before any big game release needs to be above Y, not the week that a big game releases. All the big games mentioned should help the baseline a bit, esp GT5. But we know the baseline is mostly about console price.

Early in 2009 someone predicted 360 wouldn't go below 150K in 2009, and we know how that prediction worked out, it spent a long time below 150K and even got below 100K for one week. Now there is a prediction that PS3 will maintain a baseline 50K higher than the failed 2009 360 prediction. Seems a bit unlikely to me. Seems more like a prediction made to fail, as in "Oh look PS3 is only selling in the mid 100Ks, thats way below what I predicted, must mean PS3 is having a bad year."