CGI-Quality said:
Hyruken said:
CGI-Quality said:
Hyruken said:
You see this is what i love about VGChartz. People try and pass off opinion as fact while trying to hide their obvious fanboy beliefs.
For example take God of War 3. People are arguing how succesful the game will be. Many saying it is a big franchise and sells consoles etc.. But let's look at the series sales.
God of War - Lifetime sales = 3.2m. First week sales = 172k.
God of War 3 - Lifetime sales = 2.5m. First week sales = 550k.
Those games had almost 120m PS2's to sell to worldwide and the series in almost 8 years has sold 5.7m units.
Now i'm no genius but in terms of game sales that is not so good. The fact the 2nd game sold less then the 1st does not look so good as it means popularit decreased for the series.
God of War 3 will not be a massive system seller based on it's previous records.
To put the sales in some kind of context. Halo ODST is on course to beat BOTH God of War games totals COMBINED, on a system with less consoles in the wild then the PS2 and with only a few months on release.
Now i hate Halo, but it shows how insignificant God of War franchise is when you talk about sales and more importantly talk about franchises.
God of War 3 will have zero effect on ps3 sales just as the last 2 had no effect on the ps2. I have no doubt it will be just another game to add to the list of games which did not sell as much as they probably deserved to ala Killzone 2 etc.. |
Lol.....I'm sure many will hold you to that, as you will likely be proven wrong. Wasn't this same thing said of Uncharted 2? Yea, we saw how that turned out.
Also, who posted an opinion as a fact? You talk about "fanboys" then, ironically, have a very one-sided viewpoint. And why bring up an argument that's dead and STILL off topic?
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Think you missed the point of what i was saying, how unusual....
The point was a lot of people in this thread say the reason the PS3 will finish 2nd is because of the games it has. Which is totally valid. But one of the games they example is God of War saying it is a big franchise etc.. When it's sales clearly show it is not. It is a franchise that has never sold even close to a million units in it's first week. So what i was saying is that if the previous trend of the last 2's sales follow into the 3rds sales then it will have zero effect on where the PS3 ends up, because the sales spike will be very little. And you can quote me on that. God Of War 3 will not sell 1m in it's 1st day and most likely not in it's 1st week. To take what i said literally is just petty. Because obviously at least 1 person is going to buy a console to play the game...
So think about it from a sales non-biased perspective. Using the data that we have on the previous titles would you say that it is likely to sell a lot of consoles?
To think it will is an assumption. One that as others have pointed out share very similar assumptions to other titles. Which didn't quite turn out as expected. Where as what i'm saying is based on it's previous versions sales data.
While were talking CGI, time to admit you were wrong. You were out by well over a million units on our bet. Lucky you did not bet any money on it :)
Also what i said in my earlier post is already coming true. If you look at this weeks numbers that have just been posted your notice the difference is Japan. The Japanese numbers are what are keeping PS3 above 360 by the big numbers. Soon as the Final Fantasy effect has died in Japan in the next few weeks the numbers will fall back into a normal pattern. When all regions reach that level the gap weekly between the PS3 and 360 will be very close. Soon as that happen's in my "assumption" that is when this gen is over.
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A. You came up with a bet and somehow lumped Montana and I in it. Show us where we agreed to your little "bet".
B. I'm not one of the people who think the PS3 will finish 2nd. Read again.
C. Yes, I think God of War III will move a substantial amount of consoles. Still doesn't mean I think iyt will suddenly propel the PS3 into second place.
D. Japan is the only country keeping the PS3 ahead? Really? Then how do you explain the Others difference? It's over 100,000. Also, what will be a "normal" pattern for PS3 in Japan?
E. I think you need to look at the entire picture to make points, rather than fixing them to suit your opinions.
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Is it so difficult to say you were wrong?
And he got in it because he agreed with you when you were saying numbers in Japan would be higher then the previous year. I said they wouldn't be and you both went off on one at me. Well there it is, you were wrong i was right. Why was i right? Because i looked at the data and saw the declining sales pattern. I then made a judgement on if that pattern would continue. Knowing Japan the way i do i knew it would continue such is the nature of the country.
How many do you classify as substantial console sales? Do you not think that those numbers would be canceled out by the Halo title coming next xmas? And that is the point, it is about where each of the consoles will make gains on one another. GOW3 will have a very small effect in comparison to say GT5. Thus meaning it's gain potential is not that great.
Japan is keeping the PS3 above the 360 by the gap were seeing. In US and UK the gap between the 360 and the PS3 is increasing. I have no doubt that as the year continues were see Japan numbers drop down to numbers similar to last year. Next week's numbers for last year saw PS3 sell 64k. I would guess a drop from the 147k this week to around 100k for the next set of numbers. Then the following week last year it dropped from 64k to 29k. Which i would then guess numbers of 60k for the following weeks numbers this year. Then the week after that it went from 29k to 20k. Meaning i would expect numbers of about 40k for the same week this year. Then for the first week of February we saw sales last year of 15k. I would predict sales for the first week of our february this year to be around 30k. Then i expect it to remain at that figure until it's last big Japanese game (GT5) comes out. If that makes any sense?
Then in US i fully expect the gap there between the two to increase in the 360's favour. At the start of February last year the 360 sold 116k while PS3 sold 65k. If the gap was 70K+ in the biggest week in the year then i expect the gap ratios to be the same there. So say PS3 sold 80k i expect 360 to sell 130k.
So to try and make it a bit simpler to understand what im saying is that the gap in US and UK will make up for the gap in the rest of others and Japan. Making 2010 up until E3 very close between the 2 consoles. Then whatever happen's there will shape how the holidays do. My opinion as i tried to state is that i believe at E3 Microsoft will have more options available to them due simply to their financial performance. We know Sony are losing around $50 per PS3 sold. We will see the figures in march. If they have for the 2nd year in a row taken huge losses then they won't be dropping price. The same goes for Microsoft, if they have not made as much profit as they expect then they will not drop price.
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