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We can expect new gen consoles somewhere in 2012 or later.
If in 2012, then only 3 years left for sales, maybe 4.

I wonder, how much 249$(2010-2011) or 199$(2011-2012) PS3 is better value, than Wii for same price today.
While 149$ Wii is also a serious competitor. Though, not sure if 50$ is enough difference from 199$ Wii.

I think Wii might sell another 45 mln. in next 3 years. The question, how many will PS3 sell. I think, not more than 60 mln. in next 3 years. Depends on how popular will be PS3 at 249$ in 2011 and at 199$ in 2012.