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theprof00 on 02 January 2010
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Soleron said:
theprof00 said:
...

gaming merchandise will always be available. Well, not always.

If this thing comes out this year, then I predict at least 2 more console generations. But in 15-20 years, when every household has a 10MB connection, this cloud processing will be the only thing there is.

In 10 years, you'll be able to fit an high-end PC system of today in a 5W power envelope. A laptop or desktop under $300 would be able to play Crysis-level graphics. Since I believe game graphics will not progress much beyond today (too expensive), all the processing power any household needs will be very cheap, in a very small form factor and everyone will have one. Why would anyone then pay a subscription?

I respect your opinion about computers because you seem to know a lot more than I do, and I know a lot more than the average consumer.

However, one thing I am having trouble understanding is the pricing you're mentioning. The market runs at the price it does because of consumer demand. If graphics and performance do not keep increasing, then those parts won't continue to drop in price, it will be expensive and stay expensive unless there is some huge market available.

It's would be like the next generation BluRay. If the market never sees a difference in performance and quality, then they won't switch over, because it will be unnecessary. Companies won't be able to reach scale and costs won't drop. I know you say "everyone will have one", but if that's true, then there will be a plethora of higher tech in smaller and smaller packages.

Your example of running Crysis also doesn't matter very much because the video above shows Crysis at full. It's running already. The graphics will keep increasing and so will processing power, and games will keep coming out to take advantage of higher and higher technology. ie in Rome Total War: Each soldier is representative of 10 or so soldiers. In the future, you will command millions of soldiers onscreen. This is only possible through cloud processing and now that companies are looking at this platform, they will understand that they are now free to have whatever they want in a game, because the market is not restricted by PC specifications.