I'm taking "end of gen" to mean lifetime sales of Wii, PS3 and X360 when all is said and done, and I voted third, but it is dependent on various things.
I say third because I think the current gen HD consoles will be cut off soon after MS and Sony release their next gen consoles, and that could be soon, but it depends on:
Will Natal be successful?
Will Gem be successful?
Will Natal be the beginning of a new hardware 'generation'?
Will Sony have a new console to compete in the motion control market eventually or is Gem their biggest venture into that?
If/when Natal and/or Gem flop, will MS/Sony retreat upmarket?
A game I'm developing with some friends:
www.xnagg.com/zombieasteroids/publish.htm
It is largely a technical exercise but feedback is appreciated.
Essay Pro