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It depends on what you define as "End of the Gen."

If that is "As soon as one new console is released."

I'd say 3rd.

 

Then again, this generation may have some legs to it.  With Sony and Nintendo not wanting to end it anytime soon... both for similar reasons of profitability but with way different justifications for said reasons.


Also, microsoft may or may not release a new system anytime soon, what with waiting for Natal.  So either 2nd or 3rd is possible.