ils411 said:
maybe, but seeing as nintendo is doing great dominating this gen and making a shit load of money, they would most likely want to extend this generation longer. microsoft is also doing fine and are earning a nice profit, i only see them releasing their next xbox early if the ps3 catches up to the xbox360 ww in install base in late 2010 to mid 2011. sony would most likely try to extend the ps3's life to the max to try and make a profit and earn back all their losses. |
Even though it is not an instant win button, the first mover advantage really does exist and is fairly significant. It (effectively) allows a company to establish a brand, user-base and developer relationships in the absence of competition; and is one of the primary factors why certain consoles have sold better than other consoles even though (in most ways) the earlier console was inferior. After a console generation has become established, it is eventual that one of the console manufacturers will believe that their long term prospects are better with a new console than with the one they're currently working with and they will release a new system.
After a console generation is about 5 years old, and certainly after it has been 5 years since the last console has been released, the early adopters become restless and are very receptive to sales pitches for new technology. As much as many of these people will wildly defend their console and say that it completely suits their needs, many of them will readily line-up for the opportunity to buy the latest technology once they see their favourite games enhanced with the latest technology.
Now, many people would bet on Nintendo being the first mover but I personally think there is a pretty good chance that Microsoft will be out of the gate. I believe this primarily because Microsoft could make it a much more seamless transition than either of their competitors could. Imagine in 2011 Microsoft releases a new console that is fully backwards compatible and will play all XBox 360 games at 1080p @60fps, and at the same time can offer twice the detail and shader performance per pixel at the same resolution and frame rate on exclusive games. For the next 2 to 3 years Microsoft could ensure that decent support continued for the XBox 360 as they convinced developers to steadily move their development to the next console; and 5 to 6 years down the road they could get another seamless transition to the next generation.
While it may not be as sexy as changing architecture repeatedly for maximum theoretical performance, giving developers a reliable timeline for technological upgrades to a familiar architecture while offering consumers a good product at a reasonable value without killing support rapidly is a way to steadily take over the industry.
