Blu-ray isn't banned in China. What are you smoking? How can CBHD be outselling a product 3 to 1 that is banned. Though actually yes this is the BDA fault.
China said from the start "You'd better not charge DVD standard royalties or we will go to our own standard. Blu-ray responded by charging MORE then DVD standard was when they were making it.
Less manufactures also means it costs more to make each blu-ray drive now... since there will be less people undercutting each other. Which means, Blu-ray drives will cost more, slowing adoption (which is actually behind targets.) etc. etc etc.
It all leads to losing potential profits and delaying other profits in a very time sensitive business.
Your failing to see how this is relevant.
They are losing potential profits... which means there is no guarantee that Blu-ray will "vindicate" Sony.
Essay Pro