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It would have to sell at an average of 300-350k per week at least.

Before the holiday boost and after the price cut, sales were staying fairly constant at 250k.

I expect that as the holiday boost winds down, PS3 will level off at 200-250k. The exclusives will give a temporary boost in sales that might push the average up to ~300k.

Altogether, I think it will get very close to 40m. Perhaps 38-39m.