Why New Super Mario Bros. Wii WILL NOT sell 11 million in less than a year.

[bazmeistergen]

Joelcool7 said:

Millennium said:
I'd really like to think that NSMBWii would sell that well, but the more I think about it, the more I'm not sure it can. The problem is with marketing.

To tap into the blue ocean, there's really only one thing you have to do: show people having fun. It's how the Wii _____ series does so well, and how even Wii Music broke 2.5 million in such a hostile market. It's how MK:Wii, the only game outside the Wii _____ series this gen to break 15 million sales, did it. But NSMB:Wii can't do this. Why not? Simple: it has no motion. No matter how you dress it up, you just plain cannot make button-mashing look fun. And if it doesn't look fun, the blue ocean won't bite.

I also think the blue ocean aren't gamers they are people who want something practical something they already have interest in doing. Things like WiiFit and WiiMusic sold because non-gamers are interested in those things. MarioKart is a racer, its not to complicated like Forza or GranTurismo and its simple enough for a non-gamer to pick up and play.

NewSuperMarioBros lacks the day to day interest of a non-gamer. It also isn't as straight forward as MarioKart. It will appeal to the hardcore demographic and alittle to the casual. But non-gamers who are the main market for Wii won't likely pick it up. That being said it could over its lifespan reach 20-million like NewSuperMarioBros has on the DS. But I doubt very much that it will reach 11-million in its launch year.

The people who pick up NewSuperMarioBros will be the hardcore and a couple old school gamers who remember the Mario of yesteryear. The Blue Ocean non gamer market will be reluctant to pick up NewSuperMarioBros!

The blue ocean includes millions of lapsed gamers with families. They will and are buying the game.

I wonder why some people forget that. I think it probably the age of the posters as mentioned earlier.

Crowfest!!