PS3 vs 360

[ckmlb]

nintendo_fanboy said:

History has shown that a head start with decent sales normally is enough to beat the competition, especially when the competition itself starts decent aswell. This is a clear hint that the x360 will sell more than the ps3 at the end.

but there is one issue for microsoft: it seems as if they are only able to beat the ps3 in one market, the american. Japan was lost for them right from the start and as it seems they are doing poorly in europe (except GB) aswell. This would mean in my eyes that the ps3 would finally be able to sell more than the x360. but there is another variable in this calculation, called wii. because of the wii, sony will not be able to profit from better japanese sales because japanese third parties will rather be developping for wii instead of ps3 and the gap in sales between ps3 and x360 will be far closer in japan than the one in the u.s. Finally, the x360 sales in europe will probably increase because of a better third party support compared to ps3 (american third parties mainly on x360, japanese third parties mainly on wii, nothing important left for ps3) and it finally wins.

This is how I look at it. It largely depends on the wii's performance. If the wii wins with more than 50 % marketshare and if the market is not divided in two groups (gamers and non-gamers, i don't think this will happen) then it is the x360 which becomes second.

BTW, i don't see a way for the x360 to become first. Only the ps3 is able to beat the wii because of demographic and geographic userbase.

This are the scenarios i could imagine:

1. wii, 2. x360, 3. ps3 (very probable at the moment)

1. ps3, 2. x360, 3. wii (possible if the wii loses momentum)

1. ps3, 2. wii, 3. x360 (not very probable, both wii and x360 would have to lose momentum

 Who says the 360 isn't losing momentum? And to say that Japanese publishers are going to completely abandon teh PS3 is total exaggeration: MGS 4 and FF XIII are coming to PS3...

The Wii, just like every other product in history will lose this momentum eventually and the second console a Japanese gamer will pick up will be the PS3 not the 360. When they wanna play FF XIII, they will buy a PS3.