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The only Nvidia card worth buying in that price range is the GTS 250. Certainly don't go lower. Framerates will be unreliable with 1080p and 3D on though.

Nvidia's 2010 cards won't come before mid-year. The earliest they could have their $600 card out is February (given the A3 stepping has just been put in to the fab) and they won't do $100 derivative parts until a few months after because they need to get the final stepping of the flagship card fixed first. My guess is about July.

There's no concrete information out there, but the more plausible rumours say Feb at the earliest for Fermi and that derivative parts won't be set in motion until they're sure that's fixed. up

Is 3D really worth that much to you? The GTS 250 is a good card but would you rather have more FPS, or higher resolution (by not enabling 3D), or (by using say an HD 5750) lower temps/noise and DX11?