That was a big week for Wii and it actually did manage to bring the gap down to less than 3 million with Xbox 360. With 4 more weeks to go Wii might actually pull it off. Even without NSMB numbers in Japan it would still have been almost 500k higher than Xbox 360 this week. If it can continue this performance outside of Japan for the remaining weeks that could close the gap to around 1 million, then it is up to NSMB in Japan to make up that last million.
All in all I now feel they'll end up with less than 500k between them. PS3 will be about 2 to 3 million behind, which is a very respectable result given the difference in user base. In the end it loses this battle with Xbox 360 purely because of Modern Warfare 2, it might actually outsell it when only looking at the number 2 to 5 games on the list.