If we talk about worldwide sales or US sales then Halo:Reach is going to sell more than GT5. But in europe and Japan, GT5 is going to easily sell more. Halo is mostly huge in USA and UK, in rest of the world it is much smaller. Around 75% of the Halo 3 sales came from NA. Heck, officially Halo 3 has sold at least 1 million in UK so over 80% of the sales came from USA/UK alone.
Halo:Reach is sequel of Halo 3 so it will be much smaller system seller as many believe. It will sell a lot of consoles but less than Halo 3. Sequels on same console are never as big console sellers than the prequel because almost all buyers of the game already have console. Granted, many GT5 fans have bought PS3 for GT5:Prologue (although GT5:Prologue is not full game). Natal is probably going to be much bigger console mover than Halo:Reach.
But for Sony and MS game sales are much more important than just console sales. Both still sell consoles with loss or with very small profit (360 Elite might be profitable but I doubt even that). Profits come from game sales and 360 Live. In that way, 360 is probably the winner next year. Of course, console sales affect game sales but 360 has already big install base.
I also doubt MS is going to drop price more than $50 (or 50€) if any at all. Heck, in UK they had INCREASED price of the 360 arcade this year. I don't think MS is interested in price cuts because sales are quite good even without price cuts.
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