I too think they will only be able to reach that goal with price cuts. The PS3 is clear ahead of the 360 in hardware sales exactly since its price cut, because right now the PS3 simply is the better deal for the money.
Natal will boost 360 sales a little, but with it's late 2010 release it will not be able to save the year alone, so a price cut will probably happen in early 2010 already.
But I think it will be a hard year for the 360 even with price cuts. 2010 is going to be a huge year for the PS3, with things like Heavy Rain, Modnation Racers, Gran Turismo 5, God of War 3 etc. coming up. And of course the Playstation Wand, which probably won't be quite as successful as Natal, but with it's much earlier release it will probably still outsell Natal at least in 2010.
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