If Eyetoy didn't change anything to gaming, and it didn't, there's no reason to think it will be different with Natal... Gamers want to control their games while sitting on their chair, not waving their arms. This way of controlling will always lack both precision and user feedback for complex games.
Controllers and pads exist since the first video games in the 70s, if you could just remove them, it would have been done long ago.
Now clearly, Wii showed there were a lot of people interested in a new kind of games, which is good. But new control scheme are clearly more fitted to 'casual games' and those two crowds don't mix well. Plus, Wii has a controller anyway, it's not like Natal.
3D gaming on the other hand could expand quickly and become the norm, since it improves immersion and it's easily achievable even now. It's not a revolution though, just a small improvement.
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