Not only that, but you would only have 10 million Natal units sold. That's less than 1/3 of the current install base, and by the time Natal launches it will be more like 1/4. Yeah there will be non-Reach related Natal sales too, but at a much slower buying rate. So MS loses $1 billion to get Natal into fewer homes than the original XBox. Doesn't sound like a cunning plan to me.
Both the Wand and Natal have their basic problem that there will be low market penetration for the hardware. Wii has motion control with every unit sold from launch. Natal and Wand will be very lucky to get 50% of the install base with motion control. I don't need to do the maths for you but if you only have an effective install base of 25 million (and that will be a few years away) then you are going to be much more hard pressed to make a profit on games.
Now make Halo: Reach use Natal in a really compelling way and you'll have Halo fans salivating over paying the full price for Natal on top of Reach. Get 5-6 million Natal units into homes and make a modest profit at the same time.
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