Go to Best Buy or some other retailer and get a feel for which console you like better. All you're gonna get here is people arguing for their console and discretely trying to bash the other console. IF you are an RPG fan then the 360 is the way to go. I see you're a big fan of Fable so obviously you know which console has that and Fable III is on the way.
On the other hand you are a fan of some Sony games. This isn't going to be an easy choice for you.
Xbox Live is $50 a year if you go through Live to purchase it. If you spend 5 minutes of your time looking online you can find full year memberships as low as $35. I don't think that is a deal breaker to you from what I've read.
Also you might be under the misconception that Xbox Live always costs money. Out of the box you will have the access to a Silver account which lets you acces plenty of Live features for free.
So I think this argument comes down to exclusives. I'm not gonna type out a list for you but look up exclusives for both systems and figure out which ones you like best. Both systems have awesome lineups and are pretty equal.
Have fun deciding! Getting a new console is always fun.
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