Sony doesn't seem to be prioritizing the Wand too much, in their hype and PR (though they haven't been hyping their 2010 much at all of late. Perhaps they're waiting for the holiday to die off)
Natal is something i don't think Microsoft has thought through entirely. But i'll wait for the final product to make that judgement, but they're blowing their own chances at hype, and i think Natal's peculiarity is a double-edged sword. If developers are having a hard time wrapping their brains around the Wiimote, how the hell are they going to get Natal right? But on the other end, that uniqueness could help it
Ultimately, i think they'll underperform, but it'll mostly be due to a failure by publishers (including Sony and MS) to properly utilize it, not because of the hardware itself.
Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.
