| Pyro as Bill said: I'm of the opinion that neither will be as big as the wiimote, balance board or M+. I seem to be in the minority that thinks SoMo will fare better than Natal. SoMo has a pointer. Even if the motion side of things fails hard it can still rely on better aiming controls for any shooter. IMO this would automatically make any 360/PS3 shooter superior on the PS3. The wand/nunchuk is a proven concept. A 'controller free' solution to a non-existant problem is a punt. |
I have the exact same opinion. I think the Wand will have a decent success. Because its an already very succesful system. The other thing is Sony can update their eyetoy without a problem to a 3d camera and get the exact same games if Natal is a success. So Sony can theoretically offer both.
There is just ONE thing which can be a problem and destroy everything. It could erase the advantages of the pointer if there is no nunchuk-type device.
Natal can have a lot of areas where it could improve the handling with technology. It could have various operation areas. But i cant see the advantage in videogames of this generation. There is absolutely no thing i can think of where it could offer a great experience with todays console technology.
And the lack of a tactile feedback is another major flaw. I bet this will be the reason why it wont be a success on the Xbox360. I hated the eyetoy it is awful it dont feel good to play those games.
Natal could support the traditional controller this could led to a advantage vs the PS Wand/and hopefully PS Nunchuk. But honestly I dont know how this could look.
But even if it will be a success to make an significant impact on sales it would have to be a gigantic success. 2011 would be the peak year of the Xbox360 but such a late peak is unlikely especially with an average succesful console like the Xbox360. The PS3 will match easily the 2008 Xbox figures in 2010 that would mean that the Xbox would have to be even higher then that in 2011. To stop the trend of the PS3 outselling the Xbox360. The Xbox had a major decline this year. And will continue to decline in 2010. The Xbox360 had a typical Console Life. WIth peak in its 3rd year and after that a steady decline. Natal would be the first add on which destroyed the trend and if it really led to outselling the PS3 it would be a miracle which has never happened before. MS will push the Natal and it will sell good. But it wont move consoles. Why should it. The Xbox is already an aging console by december 2010 its an old console its NOT a PS1 and PS2 that are the only consoles which had a long life the others died 6 years after its launch.
The failure of natal depends heavily on the expectations. If the Expectations are it will sell some million units and give a permanent 20% boost to slow down the decline of the Xbox360 it could be a success. That would mean 2010 holidays>=2009 holidays (even that is hard to achiev) But if someone thinks that the Xbox360 will get a constant 50-100% boost over years to outsell the PS3 or even a 200-300% boost to outsell the Wii he is just crazy in my eyes.
