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I think Microsoft will brute force some level of Natal success. They're basically treating it like a platform relaunch, they're eating costs, already heavily promoting it, lining up big commitments of support (pretty much every major publisher so far) and rumors point to a console bundle and 14 game launch even.

Sony on the other hand seems like it doesn't know wtf to do with Swand or Sphere or whatever (hell, they don't even know what to name it), it's only a season away and it's only launch game is looking like it'll be a repackaged RE5. Imagine if Wii had launched with just RE4 and wasn't even named until fall 2006...