darconi said:
With the current attach rates as it is, there's no way they're making it back on software. |
Yep, a console sold at a loss is only profitable if
LTD average loss per console sold < LTD attach rate * LTD average revenue per game sale
Their current attach rate is probably somewhere in the 3s. The only way to increase attach rate is to expand their software sales at a faster rate than they expand their user base. But that will only happen if they get a bunch of titles with long legs and it doesn't look like it will happen soon.
For third party titles, my understanding is that they make about $10 per sale. They make more money on titles they publish of course, but that's offset by the development costs. Barring a lot of really huge first party titles that earn a lot more money than they cost to make, I don't see this variable changing much.
The only real variable in the inequality is average loss per console. This will only go down if they sell more consoles at a smaller loss or at a profit. The more consoles they sell at a higher loss, the bigger the hole they dig for themselves. They keep selling them at a huge loss anyway though because they need to get all of the marketshare they can since marketshare begets developer support and public interest which begets further sales at a later time.