Natal is just a nice addition to controls but it won't be required by many games. Those third party developers which support Natal are going to release games which use Natal as an optional control but you can play game without it just as well. It is just logical because there are a lot of 360 owners don't have Natal and they want to sell games to them too. I doubt that for example Fable III is going to require Natal because game sales would drop drastically with requirement (Natal is going to be used as option though). A lot of Fable fans don't want motion control.
If Natal would have some huge exclusive (first-party) games to showcase controls from the start then it might be huge success. Without huge games Natal can't be a success because controller is bought for games. Even Wii wouldn't have been nearly this successful without Wii Sports. I would say Wii Sports and other Wii games have been bigger console sellers than wiimote itself.
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