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Lets be realistic, we are 4-5 years into the generation, most hard core gamers have already bought their console. The rest are mostly casuals that only buy a limited number of games each year and don't really follow new releases closely.

Natal may affect the final number of consoles sold, but in reality the software sales, DLC, and other services show who has really won the generation... What's the sense in selling a gazillion consoles if no one buys your games, DLC, or other services?