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Well, about your last part, that'll be mainly because online was already a factor for the first Xbox and was being carried over to Xbox 360. Aside from that, being able to play online IS probably the overwhelmingly biggest reason to own Gold, so even despite a free PSN, there's no negating XBL, since there was always going to be a huge Xbox-fanbase, and those people would flock to XBL, no matter what PSN did though.