So next stop for Ps3 = Wii.Impossible?

[dunno001]

Hah! People keep trying to tout their system's new hardware accessory as a reason it will outsell. Sorry, but all 3 systems are getting one (Natal, PS3 Wand, Vitality sensor), so for simplicity's sake, I'll cancel them all out. I'll be honest in that I'm still surprised at how well Wii Fit (and Plus) are doing, as accessories added after the fact to the system usually have a tendency to fail. Tentatively, I do think they will all initially make waves, but then I see them falling to the wayside within a year. (It's also kinda how I'm seeing WM+.) Then there's games. Again, all 3 systems have a few big name games coming out, so I'll cancel them out again.

So for a yearly trend, I don't see any change to the order of system sales for the year as things stand now. There may be stuff announced in later 2010 that changes this view, but as it is unknown for now, I can't speculate on it. However, this thread is about if the PS3 can overtake the Wii. So let's look at the numbers:

First, let's start in Japan. Hypothetically, I'll say the Wii settles at a 15K weekly average and the PS3 keeps its momentum and has a 40k/week average. A 25K/week margin gives 1.3 million in a year (measured from 52 weeks), and it would take a little over 3.5 years just to close the gap for Japan. Possible in theory, but I don't see this happening.

Both others and the US are insanely tough to predict, as the Wii has been blowing the PS3 out of the water on average lately. But I'll say that something I can't see happening happens, and the PS3 outsells the Wii by 50K/week in each region, or 2.6M in a year. Again, we'd be looking at a little over 3.5 years in others, and a whopping 6 years in the Americas, again, just to catch up!

In these best case scenarios for Sony, 125K/week over the Wii worldwide gives them 6.5M of makeup each year, or about 4.5 years to catch the Wii. I just can not see Sony maintaining this kind of sales rate on the PS3 for such a period of time. Even a rate of 75K/week would increase the time needed to 7.5 years, which going from now, will still exceed Sony's 10 year plan. I'm going to say with a fair deal of confidence that Sony is not surpassing the Wii with the PS3, unless Nintendo does something incredibly stupid.