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makingmusic476 on 19 November 2009
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Khuutra said:
Kantor said:
The NES sold roughly 62 million.

The Wii sold 6.51 million between this time last year and the end of 2008.

Adding that on to current Wii sales would give 63.2 million.
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Wii was down 14% this week.

If it's down 14% for the rest of the year: 6.51 * 0.86 = 5.60 million

56.69 + 5.60 = 62.29 million

Which is just above the NES. But, the Wii will probably go down further YoY, around the time when the Wii began to take off and sell 1 million + in 2008.

So, I now say no, it won't.

Don't forget that the Wii was badly supply constrained in December of last year, which is why December numbers were basically identical to November numbers. This year, that won't be a problem.

I say it will.

I think you may underestimate the holiday rush and the effects of shipping constraints.  The DS Lite was nigh impossible to find last December, despite having been on the market for four years by that point.  Yes, they may be able to manufacture XX amount during a normal month, and they may stockpile plenty for the Holidays, but sometimes it's simply logistically impossible for stores to keep enough in stock for December, especially given how much other stock they have to deal with (on a typical day at GameStop we get anywhere from 0-4 boxes in our shipment - on any day in December we'll get over 30).

Edit: This post was aimed at your line concerning the alleviation of supply constraints, not towards the idea that the Wii willl do better/worse than last year, or whatever it was that you guys were discussing lol.