Crunch time for the PS3

[shams]

boilermaker11 said:
Did you really debunk me? Is it really a fad? Did developers not, at first, complain about the difficulty for programming for PS2? Did the gaming community not try and convince people that the PS2 had no games, and was too expensive when it first came out? How about when the PS1 first came out and used CDs, and most people said that it wasn't necessary, and that cartridges would be just fine? Then when a developer came out and finally said that space matters (Squaresoft, FFVII), everyone hopped on the PS1. Once more, when PS2 triumphed over DC and it's GD-ROM.

All I'm trying to say here is that selling-wise, and consumer opinion-wise, the PS3 is VERY similar to its' predecessors. You can deny it just because the Xbox is here....but then you'd have to deny the competition of the Sega Saturn and the N64 vs. PS1, and DC vs. PS2

No, its actually not true at all.

You can argue that the hardware is similar - in that its "cutting edge", difficult to develop for - and requires a considerable amount of investment and engineering. But for starters, the PS3 is already an order of magnitude more complex than the PS2.

The business conditions are completely different. And if you want to ignore them... well, then your argument holds absolutely no gumption.

In short:

 - PS2 had a year headstart on the competition. By the time *any* competition arrived, it was well entrenched, development difficulties were pretty much over, and it had a 10m + headstart. When the competition did arrive, there were TWO contenders - and they were competing with each other directly. This prevented either from being able to take on the PS2 itself. The PS2 also doubled as a DVD player - which was an established movie playback format. No competition, and widely accepted by the public as "a needed device" (upgrading from tapes).

 - PS3 has a year lag on its (main) competition. It launched with little software support, was overly expensive. It was plagued by delays, and launch hardware shortages. It also launched alongside the Wii - which was significantly cheaper, and publicly viewed as much more innovative. This took much of the sting out of the launch campaign, as the PS3 struggles to get publicity.

...

Fact:

 - 1 year after launch, the PS2 was 7-8m AHEAD of the competition.

 - 1 year after launch, the PS3 is 7m BEHIND the 360, and 8m BEHIND the Wii.

(by the end of the holidays, this will grow to 8m behind the 360, and 10-12m behind the Wii)

...

Go ahead - look at that comparison, and tell me the 14-20m unit difference doesn't exist - and has no relevance.