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Not at all, Halo Wars was a solid effort, it was partically impossible for it to get Halo 3 scores and sales due to being an RTS.

ODST wasn't a full game, although still good.

If Halo Reach doesn't do Halo 3 sales/scores and isn't a big jump (and it will be a jump as it's an entirely new engine) then we can start talking about it going downhill.