REally how Wii sales will turn out depends on how shipment percentage goes. As of now NA makes up 40% of shipments. Japan makes up 34% and Europe/Other makes up 26% of shipments. Really the strongest shortages are coming from Europe so I wonder how over the months shipments will be spread out. If shipments stay the same til March 2008 then here's how the split will be if exactly 20 million are shipped:
North America- 8.00 million
Japan- 6.8 million
Europe- 5.2 million
But there's no telling if things will stay the same. As with MS you could see a direct pattern as 60% of their shipments being to NA and 30% being for Europe, and the other 10% for the rest of the world. It had that exact pattern up til Q4 2006. Main reason is that sales were very steady for a very long time. Lack of demand everywhere so same shipment patterns stayed. The set limit never changed. Didn't need to take away from one area to put into another area cause you had plenty.
But Wii is different as all 3 areas are having major shortages. So it'll be interesting to see if NIntendo bumps up percentage shipped to Europe or simply keep it that same way. If it stays the same then Wii shortages will most likely be over in Japan and NA by the end of the year. But if Europe continues to only get that much then we all know 5.2 million isn't enough.
So I noticed in The Source's sales that your expecting that the Wii will stop being sold out and very soon I might add. I think Wii may pull somewhat of a DS. Where it starts to relax but them come holiday season sales out all of them and then has a shortage in January and starts to level out in February and March.
So here's my split by March 2008 for actual sales:
North America- 7.3 million
Japan- 6.3 million
Europe- 5 million
So as you can see NA and Japan will be pretty much over their shortage but still not many left over. While Europe will still be quite sold out. If Wii follows in DS sucess in Europe then there will definetly not be enough. I think NA is where you'll see the most difference in actual sold and shipments because the American market is very large and is able to handle 3 consoles. Unlike the rest they usually have one console that takes off and it's the only one that can stay up. Thus you'll see the shortage die off a little quicker. Japan will still be pretty tight cause right about now there is aposlutely nothing PS3 can do to reclaim Japan. There is no game that can stop the Wii not even FFXIII. PS3 at this same time in Japan will have been lucky to have sold 3 million. But all my numbers are in relation to the percentage shipments I provided earlier as I really don't know how it's going to be divied out.
As for 360 it's really hard to tell. Japan is dead, Europe is stale, and North American is falling with the entrance of Wii and PS3 but mainly Wii. With only 500,000 shipped last quarter due to overshippment of the previous quarter it would be interesting to see if MS could hit 20 million shipped by the end of March 2008. Personally I don't think they can do it. With only a projection of 12 million shipped by the end of June 2006, then the next quarter will have minimal shipments to save up for holiday season, we'll probably see at the most 13-14 million. Then by the end of the Holiday season we'll either see MS pull the same antic and try and overship or we'll see them do it right. If they overship they'll put out 4 million again. This would leave them about another million at the most to ship in March 2008 if I'm really generous. But if they don't overship then 3 million at the most. Halo 3 is definetly going to push some sales but not enough to put MS in North America in a moment of shortages. I don't think there is any game that could push that much hardware.
So a shipment breakdown of what I'd say 17 million shipped by the end of March 2008 for the 360:
North America- 10.2 million
Europe- 5.1 million
Japan/other- 1.7 million
Other will not go up much at all as there is no way it has even sold half of what it has already shipped there. Japan has only had 350k sold and the rest could only possibly double that. Europe I'm wondering if I'm being to generous as MS is only big in the UK. And with 60% of their shipments most likely going to UK I may have been a little to high. As for NA I'd say that's about right. Of course this is all if MS ships exactly 17 and if they keep up their 60:30:10 shipment percentile.
As for actual sales:
North America- 9.3 million
Europe- 3.5 million
Japan/Other- 1 million
Once again that would tally up to about 13.8 million. Might seem low at first but with a console that's showing trends similar to that of the Xbox it should have similar years to that of the Xbox.
As for PS3 its always a tough cookie. I mean you hear all the time that don't worry come 2008 it will take off. So then most are pretty much putting it down for 2007. I'd tend to agree with them on that but I think most say it will takeoff in 2008 is because they know it's not going to take 2007. Kinda giving themselves hope cause they know of failure in 2007. You see a lot of hardcore gaming sites and mags say this as well as many once again feel that 2007 is a failure for PS3 but your prediction is always safe with the future. Many of these same people probably said that Wii would fail at launch. Always keep that in note when you read a few of these PS3 will takeoff in 2008 and Wii will fail notes. That is the main reason why they do say it.
But seeing as they and I both concede 2007 to the devil here is shipment predictions by the end of 2008 for the PS3 although it would help if Sony released their finance reports might as well take a stab. Although their finance reports could change my entire number thoughts but this is what I think will happen including what I think would have been said in Q1 2007 shipment numbers:
North America- 4 million
Japan- 3.5 million
Europe/Other- 3 million
This is a very rough estimate. It's hard to account in the amount of numbers that Sony is going to overship on. I'm having to look back and see the percentage they tend to overship on. But to me it's going to be actual sales that I'll care about at this time which are these:
North America- 3 million
Japan- 2 million
Europe- 2 million
So as you can see it's very similar to that of the 360's start off just in different proportions. This is all very rough as I don't know Sony's Q1 2007 shipment numbers and it's hard to calculate how much Sony will overship by. But sales I think will be pretty obvious. I think those are good numbers to go with. But prediction all of this is a hard game to play so if I'm totally wrong don't rant on me haha.
