Legend11 said:
Ok, what are the final specs of Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony's next generation consoles? You don't know that? Then how in the h*ll can you make claims like that? Stop making wild ass guesses and passing them off as fact. I doubt even the big 3 know what will be the final specs of their next generation of consoles. |
I think his point is that MS and Sony are showing that you can't attain mass market sales figures without a mass market price. Their next systems will have to be cheaper than their current ones leading to less of a jump in performance. At least that is the point I would make. Moore's Law regarding computing power per dollar would roughly show why this is the case (admittedly it's not perfect but good enough). The PS3 launched 6 years after the PS2 at twice the price which would equate into the PS3 being 32 times the power of the PS2 (2*2^4). Especially with Kutaragi gone Sony must realize their next system will have to be $300 with a smaller initial loss. That being the case the PS4 will be 4 times as powerful as the PS3 (0.4*2^3.333). For MS the calculations turn out a 360 that is almost 9 times as powerful as the Xbox and assuming 5 years and a more reasonable $300 price, the next Xbox would be 6 times as powerful as the 360.
Nintendo is much harder to calculate since per unit profit, and major costs like the Wiimote and online interface are unknown. The Wiimote is evidently a very expensive addition, seeing as they took at least 3 years to develop and cost $60 alone. I think had Nintendo sold the Wii without the motion controls, the online channels, Wii Sports, flash memory, and with a similar profit margin (ie as simply a more powerful GameCube and I'm assuming Nintendo increased its per unit profit on the Wii) they could have sold it for under $100. That would result in a Wii that is 4-5 times more powerful than the GameCube. Not the 1.5-2 times frequently asserted but more in line I think with the Wiis 3-4 fold increase in transistor count*frequency and memory capability over the GameCube (not a perfect measurement of power I know). At any rate, 5 years from now Nintendo could release a $250 Super Wii without a game which would equate to a system that is 12-15 times more powerful than the Wii depending on how other internals change.
So lenardo's point, while not 100% certain, is definitely reasonable. This generations we have seen the following improvements (Sony/MS/Ninty) 32/9/4, next gen it will likely be 4/6/12-15. Next generation then Nintendo would show the biggest improvement in capability. Of course Sony and MS can do whatever they want, Sony could go crazy and decide the PS3 is indeed too cheap as Kutaragi claimed. They could release a $1000 system next generation which would allow them to match the power increase that Nintendo's system will have. It wouldn't sell but that's another issue. Whatever happens, given Nintendo's low price and the fact that much of that price is absorbed by abnormally high non-graphical power features compared with MS/Sony's excessive per-unit loss and price it means that it is a safe bet that Nintendo's next system will show a much bigger bounce in power than MS/Sony's.
