ironman said:
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Your whole argument for firmware is ridiculous. People update firmware, or update products on a regular basis. You act as if the majority would rather buy a new product rather than upgrade the one they have, which is just not true. People don't buy a new computer or 360 or PS3 anytime it needs an update. Nor do they go out and buy new games or software when it needs updating. To do so would be not only be idiotic, but would also bankrupt you. I mean you would buy a new product every few months, even weeks, if that were true. I think it is you that does not understand people.
BTW what kind of DVD player did you have? I have never heard of DVD player having upgradable firmware via the internet. Only one I can think of that was upgradable at all was the PS2. But that was through either random games or demo discs.
I'm sorry to say it, but your history is the one that is off alittle. True, in the early 70's, cassettes did start to gain ground, due to the increase in sound quality. However, 8-tracks were still popular, and didn't truly start to lose popularity until the late 70's, when companies wanted to decrease the number of formats for music. Cassetes proved to be cheaper to make, coupled with their increasing popularity, so they were chosen as the format of choice. However, as I stated before, cassettes hit their larger boom in the 80's, thanks to the introduction of portable players. Keep in mind also that both 8-track and cassettes were released in the same year, 1964, and it was 8-track that came out on top for more than a decade, so definitely not a flop.
But just for the sake of argument, let's take your history into consideration. Even if cassettes took over in '73, that's still 9 years 8-track dominated. And considering it wasn't until late 1982 that they were completely removed from shelves, that's another 9 years they stuck around. Now you said VHS stuck around for 3 years after DVD was released, and DVD is looking to stick around 4-6 more years after Blu-ray, I would have to conclude that 8-track was bigger than them both.
Just because Blu-ray has more to compete with doesn't mean it will fail. It only means it will not gain the huge market share DVD had, as it had barely any competition. But I still feel confident it will rise to having a majority share in the next year or two. And the fact that not everyone will replace their DVD's with Blu-ray is why Blu-ray will be succesful. Simply put, you don't have to. You can keep your old movies and just buy new ones on Blu-ray. Now I don't know how well upconverting DVD players have done, as I have yet to see any published sale numbers for them. But considering my last trip to Wal-mart I saw one as opposed to the 6 or 7 Blu-ray players, I doubt there is that much demand for them.