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I think your entire argument is flawed.

1. Nintendo's advertising and campaigns with out of the ordinary media outlets drove the Wii's success. Not core Nintendo gamers.

2. While Sony can and probably will follow part of that launch style, the controller itself is not up to par with what a wiimote can do. No nunchuk will dramatically limit the game styles it can do well.

I believe Natal and the Wand have yet to even demonstrate, let alone prove, they can actually replace a standard controller. Without that they will simply be largely ignored and only have a handful of viable games, that will sell far better on Wii if multi-console.