I'll repeat what I posted from the news article
NSMB on the DS sold 19million in total
The most Call of Duty sold on one system was 5.45 on the 360. It was 2.37 on the PS3. Also, since the original MW sold due to new content, there is more then likely be diminishing sales. I see no reason why sales should go up.
So it probably only has to beat 2.37, which is can easily do.
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Did some number crunching. Here's what I found
I took a rough estimate of the Wii and PS3 sales of the game in America for the first eight weeks (roughly the Christmas season). In that time span, New Super Mario Bros sold 889K while MW sold 901K. The gap is incredibly close. Also take into account that sales will be down for MW2 due to diminishing sales and it is possible for NSMBW sales to be up due to being a console Mario and multiplayer.
I say it is very likely Reggie will win the bet. If MW2 has a diminishing effect like I say, then NSMBW will win. I will be wrong if most of MW2 sales are concentrated in the first few weeks rather then spread out.
I would say it is very likely Reggie will win the bet. It's not 100%, but I'd say the odds are in his favor.
@Joelcool
It is very likely NSMBW will. MW2 shows no evidence of outpreforming the first. It is too close to the last one and a big selling point of the first one was that it was new content not seen before (atleast in a good game). MW2 does not have the advantage. It will still do well, but I expect some diminishing results. I also suspect we'll see that a larger portion of those sales would be the preorders.
