Will Republican Victories Lead Back to Dillinger / James days?

[Avinash_Tyagi]

Actually republicans won because a lot of Obama voters just stayed home, which makes sense, Obama has higher approval ratings than the overall Democratic party, nor did Obama campaign for these guys, so a lot of 2008 voters just didn't bother showing up.

Might this translate into gop victories in 2010 and 2012? 2010 possibly, 2012 not a chance, for 2010 it hinges on the economy, particularly unemployment, the ability of the parties to get out the vote and whether Obama campaigns for the Dems. Also a key factor is where the GOP is aligned in 2010, if they keep going right, even a bad economic situation may not help them in the general election.

2012 not a chance, because by then the employment situation will be much improved even pessimistic views of the economy expect most jobs to return by 2012, and presidential approval and employment have a strong correlation, and Obama will be back at the top of the ticket, even now, Obama has positive job approval ratings, by the time 2012 rolls around and the economy is in full recovery, his approval will be higher.

Also another reason why 2012 will be a dem year, the GOP favorites for the 2012 election are Huckabee, Palin and Romney, none of them are liked by the overall electorate only Republicans, and they'll have to drift very right to get the GOP nomination, allowing the Dems lots of fodder to use against them in the general election.