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Eh, it's doable.

Look at Wii Sports Resort. That thing is going to blow right past 11mil in its first year of sales.

Although NSMB Wii doesn't have the advantage of MK Wii's wheel, it does have the advantage of a larger userbase. Also, it's the main holiday game of 2009, so it'll probably reach near 7mil from November / December alone. An extra 4mil from there on is cake.