Wii Fit sold roughly as quick as Mario Kart, depending on how you count it. Staggered launches makes it hard to give a good number for this, but it's 13-17 million essentially
Mario Kart Wii did 15 million in 12 months
Wii Sports Resort is looking at MKWii esque sales. 13-17 million
Brawl did 8 million
SMG did 7 million
I would be surprised if NSMB Wii ends up being smaller than Brawl/SMG. I'd say it's looking 10-15 million for the first 12 months.
So I will take your 11 million bet, good sir.