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You are basing this estimation on the American preorders but I think that, maybe, you are overestimating the selling power of MW2 in Europe.

I'd rather say that we should have a 4 m launch (3m in America and 1m in Others ).

And then 500 000 units per week : which is still huge. So around 8 million by the end of 09. However i think mario will be around 5 million at this time.

 

Ltd I think it will be a virtual tie ( around 15 million each ).