I don't think NSMB Wii has a shot for end of 09. MW2 is looking at 4-5 million in the first two weeks, and should probably sell around 7 million by the end of the year (MW1 did 5.5). If NSMB Wii sells as much as Wii Fit did in the same period 08, that will be 3.5-4.5 million. I believe that's the range NSMB Wii is looking at.
As for Lifetime, MW2 seems to be looking at 13-15 million of sales. NSMB Wii is a bit of an oddball, and could really end anywhere between 10 and 30 million, depending on whether it follows and Mario Kart Wii style or Super Mario Galaxy style. I think 30 million is far more likely, if 2D Marios are in fact still popular on consoles.
So, if I were to predict:
NSMB Wii:
Year's end: 4.2 million
Lifetime: 24 million (I don't really know. It's in the 15-30 million range really)
CoD MW2:
Year's end: 7.2 million
Lifetime: 16 million
