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Any less than 10mil and it's not a real success. It might be a success on it's own, but not enough to attract much third party support.

Many 360 owners complain how people look waving their hands around with a wiimote and numchuck. To me, it's looks / would feel even sillier waving your hands around without something to hold. I don't see this doing real well, unless it's either bundled (required for a new 360), and under $100 for existing 360s.