Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
As for b), I'm referring to costs to Sony. You earlier referred to "development" costs, which was misleading if you were intending to refer to manufacturer's costs in switching to a new fabrication method. As for that, the manufacturer can put out more chips per sheet once the new process is in place...that's what's in it for them. The fact that there are upfront costs is vacuous when you consider that the move to a 45nm method was certainly made in the knowledge that it offered a cost savings (yes, to Sony) in the long run. |
Sigh.. let me spell out the reality for you (I'm not even going to explain why my previous estimates of $330-$350 for the old model are insignifcant differences to the $330 projected now).
"As for that, the manufacturer can put out more chips per sheet once the new process is in place".
On the old 65nm process, approximately 320 cell chips fit on a wafer. On the new process, approximately 400 chips fit (given the known die sizes). This means, in theory, that manufacturing costs per chip decrease by 25% (or roughly $8). Unfortunately, there is a problem when we enter the real world. The 65nm process is now several years old and the engineers know how tweak the steps to get maximum yields out of the assembly lines. This is not true for a new process which results in lower yields (the cells for the PS3 had yields around 40% initially and are probably now >85%?). So initially, the manufacturer will likely get the same amount of cell chips out of the wavers with the new process. These are the new cell chips the manufacturer sells to Sony now.. notice the simplified fact: same number per waver, same selling price.
"The fact that there are upfront costs is vacuous.." I can assure you that setting up new assembly lines is certainly not "vacuous" for the manufacturer. Somebody has to come up with those costs and the manufacturer has to charge somebody for them. (There are other factors in the equation like the simple fact that no manufacturer would have switched to 45nm for the measly 10 mio cell chips per year - why do you think Sony had to resell their brand new 45nm cell factory last year?).
"..that it offered a cost savings (yes, to Sony) in the long run." And when do you think this long run will start? When Sony starts buying 45nm cell chips? Keep dreaming, the first ten or so million cell chips will cost Sony exactly the same as the old cell chips (and now you maqy start to realize why Sony stated many months ago that the PS3 will not reach break-even until next fiscal year - roughly when 10 mio 45nm cell chips will have been soldered into PS3s....nice coincidence, isn't it?).
