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It's hard to say, as PS3 has far more competition than the PS2 ever had. And so does Gran turismo (Forza 3). Xbox360 is big in america, and forza is big in america, i think this will take away from it's sales in that country, so i expect GT5 to be the lowest selling GT game (not including GTPSP which is a flop). I am thinking it will get 7-10mil by the end of the PS3's life.

EDIT: Got abit sidetracked there, just saw the topic was about will it be a system seller.  To this i say yes, it won't have the splash that FF13 will have in japan, but it will sell system's.  It gives people another great reason to own a PS3, and it will be a massive game i have no doubts about that.