silicon said:
Keep in mind this is supposed to be a discussiong of Nintendo releasing a new or upgraded Wii console in 2 years and not now. I'm not sure what you mean by lose sales and profits. The Wii will continue to sell... making a new console does not stop the producing of the Wii or selling the Wii. Also I think you're saying that if there is a new console people will buy the new console instead of the Wii. But the Wii already had a price cut, and will likely see another price cut again within the next 2 years. These price cuts already significantly reduced the profit margins. This loss is already more than introducing another console that will have a much higher profit margin. Nintendo would also be considering SONY's and Microsofts decisions as well. While SONY's motion sensor will likely not effect the Wii, Natal has the potential to hurt the Wii's lifetime sales. If and when the mass market consumers switch to HD, a Natal X360 would be a more compelling option than a old Wii. At the same SONY and MS have their engineering teams working on new hardware. Nintedo also has teams of engineers who are likely already working on the next Wii. Also, which consumers would be angry by an HD Wii? Consumers did not get angry with the released of the DSi, or Iphone 3G or 4G. New models has become a part of electronics industry. If consumers do get angry, Nintendo will have a large enough marketing budget to change the minds of the casual users in the market. It seems as though you believe that the Wii will sell at the same rate forever because people like the Wii now. If you don't agree, what do you think Nintendos plans are? Also, if they don't release a Wii in 2 years, is it 3 or 5 or 20?
Nintendo might have said their next console will have physical media, but the industry wants digital distribution and it's just a matter of time.
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If its just a Wii with HD graphics, then yes it would cut into Wii sales, and also profits Wii will only see another price cut, if Nintendo stumble again like with Wii music and Animal crossing, Wii sales aren't affected by PS3 and 360 prices, so price cutting isn't needed as long as Nitnendo can keep momentum going. A new console wouldn't have a higher profit margin in two year, since Nintendo will price it at no more than $250 with a game, with the higher hardware, it would have a lower profit margin than Wii at that price. The HD aspect of a console doesn't factor into the buying choices of the market Nintendo is trying to reach, its why games like Wii fit easily crush games like GTA and Halo 3 in sales. NATAL and Sony wand can only affect the Wii, if they are able to have software that can compete with Wii Sports and Wii fit, so far there is no evidence that MS or Sony could, NATAL and the wand will likely not be a success. Working on the next Nintendo system yes, but is it another Wii, not at all likely, it'll be something different than just an HD Wii because the DSi isn't a different piece of hardware, games that play on the DS lite will play on the DSi or the new DSi, an HD Wii wouldn't work the same. I don't think Wii will sell at the same rate, but it'll still make more profit and sales than the competition, so no need to release a new system. Nintendo will launch at the same time or a year after its competitors, so if Sony and MS launch in 2012, then expect 2012-2013 for Nintendo's next console. When has Nintendo ever listened to what the industry wants? The industry can say what it wants, but Nintendo tries to do what customers want, not what the industry wants.
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)







