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As far as total sales this year it will only have to beat last years number by 10 percent to make 16m. According to this site the 360 sold 2.55m units between Nov 11th and the end of December 2006. If it tops that by 10 percent that will be 2.8m + the current 13.2 = 16m.

Also according to this site this week tracked 20 percent above the same week last year, so that 10 percent does not seem at all unreasonable. And that increase comes after the draining of the pent up demand from the Halo launch so it would seem sustainable.