I read a Bobby Kotick (the d bag from Activision) interview the other day saying they usually get hardware prototypes about 2 years before new consoles are released and so far they have seen nothing. Even though Kotick is a huge dick, he's a pretty straight shooter, so I believe that.
MS may have said that about the 4 year cycle at the beginning of the generation, but the situation is very different now than what they probably thought it would be. Yes, they are starting to get spanked by Sony on a weekly basis now, but their machine is still selling well and still the number two console on the market.
I would say that if anyone needs a new console on the market sooner rather than later, it's probably Nintendo, and I'm not even sure how well THAT would sell. People aren't ready for new consoles yet. Putting anything new on the market right now is way too soon.
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