Alright lets start by saying I have never been the biggest Sony fan. I did however own every Sony platform that has come out and while the GameCube and 360 have taken up most of my time and not the PS2 or PS3 I think my opinion is still fairly unbiased. So I just bought a PS3 this year and the limited catalogue has left me only purchasing a few choice games. I have yet to buy a single multiplatform title due to my 360 which I buy them all for. So what are the weaknesses I see with the PS3!
Game Prices
Much like the GameCube when it was failing, the PS3 has extremely high software prices. An old 2007 game still goes for 69.99$ here in Canada and a few have dropped to 59.99$. However other then sports games the majority of the PS3 library is more expensive then the competition. I can buy a brand new Nintendo title for 49.99$ or a brand new X-Box titles for 59.99$.
Development costs
Keeping software prices high is the really high dev costs of the PS3. A bigger budget title on PS3 is no cheaper then 15 mill, while on the Wii its only 4-mill and 360 about 8-mill. This means titles have to sell far higher amounts to break even or turn a profit, this leads to fewer titles being developed.
Porting difficulties
The 360 is essentially a computer and porting titles to and from PC to 360 is fairly cost effective. However the PS3's cell processor is far harder to port titles too. This has lead to alot more 360/PC exclusives and not nearly as many solid multiplatform titles on the PS3.
Hardware costs
Up untill this fall the PS3 has steadily sold for at least 100$ more then its main competition (X-360) and hundreds above the biggest market holder Nintendo's Wii. This high price prevented anyone other then early adapters and die hard fanboys from purchasing a PS3. Today the PS3 Slim is starting to fly off the shelves and thanks to the price cut and Slim the PS3 has actually outsold the Wii and 360 for the month of September.
Classics online
Online Sony's faced stiff competition from Nintendo's virtual console. With far fewer classic platforms represented on Sony's platform it has suffered from a lack of a solid library. However recent announcements that DreamCast and PS2 titles will be hitting Sony's online store theirs a chance that Sony could start turning the tables on their main classic competitor Nintendo.
Online Network
Many will point out that much like Nintendo Sony's online network has failed to compete with Microsoft's X-Box Live. However many big online titles like M.A.G are hitting shelves soon and this gives Sony a chance to turn the tables and show innovation online where Microsoft doesn't currently rule!
Bluray
A major flaw in Sony's marketing was the BluRay. Sony was pushing a new platform on the world trying to convince people to turn away from the competition's HD-DVD and the classic format of choice DVD. BluRay won the battle less then a year ago and is rapidly being adopted leading likely to higher PS3 sales. However early on people were afraid to buy PS3 as a BluRay player unsure of whether the platform held future potential.
Motion Controller
Nintendo had this one down. They were the only platform with a motion controller. However Sony's has announced their new motion controller to launch in 2010. This controller will level the playing field giving them a better chance at competing with Nintendo's motion controller and Microsoft's Project Natal!
So Why Should Sony sit out next gen?
This is simple, when the PS3 was launched Sony said that they expected the PS3 to have a 10 year life cycle. So why shouldn't Sony release the PS4 in 2011 when Nintendo and Microsoft should both have their platforms ready? All the above reasons for the PS3's failure are reasons for Sony to stick with the PS3 for another generation.
Graphically Nintendo and Microsoft are playing catch up. Chances are their next gen platforms will be 2x maybe 3x as powerful as the PS3 at best. The competition's platforms will also cost about 300$-600$ making them less attractive to consumers then a 200$ PS3. With BluRay just catching on the PS3 has a big advantage over the competition, but all indications point to a complete download platform (PS4) instead of remaining with BluRay disks. The success of BluRay will lead to millions of more PS3's being sold.
When the competition launches their next platforms the dev costs will jump to higher or at best equal to the current prices of developing on PS3. This will mean more titles will be ported or developed on the PlayStation 3 if PS4 is not made availible. Cheaper dev costs will drive software prices down. When software prices begin to dip to say 49.99$ a new game or even 29.99$ for an older title sales will also begin to improve. Software sales will begin to turn the PS3 into a behemoth.
Would it make sense to launch a motion controller in 2010 just to replace the platform in 2011? Some will speculate that the motion controller may launch for the PS4 instead of for the PS3. However that would leave Sony's platform at a higher cost then the Nintendo competition who will likely launch their next platform for about 300$ as they always have in the past.
Lastly market share. When Nintendo and Microsoft launch a new platform they will be back to square one. They will have to start all over with 0% of the market. However if Sony chooses to keep the PS3 around instead of replacing it with PS4 they start with a huge install base and a massive percentage of the market.
So what should Sony do come 2010 instead of launching the PS4?
Launch another model of the PS3. A PS3 slim with the new motion controller and at least one game and BluRay movie included. Make another price drop to 200$ and watch the platform fly off the shelves, seeing a software and movie sales boost. Sony can sit back and watch their disaster (PS3, launch) turn into a cash cow!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
